Reading Biased Wheels and Other Predictive Methods

Wriggly frets

Wriggly frets are one of the most common causes of wheel bias. Frets are used to separate one numbered pocket from another but tend to wear out and loosen over time. The higher these separators are, the more prone they become to potential damage. Some dealers involuntarily push or pull the frets when rotating the wheel which causes some of them to loosen.

When frets are loose, they tend to absorb the impact of the ball better than normal pocket separators. Randomness is disturbed as the ball settles in some pockets or wheel sections more frequently than it does in others.

Defective ball tracks

Defective ball tracks can also lead to wheel bias. This component of the wheel also wears out with extended use, but this normally requires many years. A reputable casino inspects and replaces its roulette wheels with far greater regularity. Worn out ball tracks cause ball rattle which might result in specific drop points becoming more frequent. As a result, a section bias might develop.

Unevenly sized pockets

Unevenly sized pockets might disturb the randomness of results because the ball is more likely to settle in a larger pocket than it is in a smaller one.

Quality and form of the balls

The quality and form of the balls also have an impact on the results a roulette wheel produces. A ball manufactured from a low-quality material is more likely to become deformed. In turn, such deformations make it more susceptible to wheel defects such as grooves and tiny cracks.

Wobbling wheels

Wobbling wheels are common culprits when it comes to disturbing roulette’s randomness. This wobbling is usually caused by tilts where one side of the rotor sits slightly lower than the other one. Gravity pulls the ball down so that it favors the tilted side of the wheel.

Because of this, casinos need to ensure their wheels are uniformly weighted. Apart from this, tilts occur when players are consciously or unconsciously leaning onto the wheel’s bowl rim. Many landbased casinos have installed plexiglass shields to prevent this from happening.

The bias that results from wobbling wheels is relatively easier to spot with the naked eye. Detecting it is also less time-consuming because it does not necessarily require you to record spin results and compile a large sample size. The more pronounced the tilt is, the less random the results become.

Irregular deceleration

Irregular deceleration is another leading cause of wheel bias. A random wheel is supposed to rotate smoothly and decelerate at an even rate. Distortions in the wheel shaft may lead to quicker deceleration when the zero is at a certain point around the base of the wheel. This typically happens when specific rotors and wheel bases are utilized. Irregular deceleration causes sector biases, particularly in situations where there is a pronounced wheel tilt that leads to common drop points of the ball.

Material the pockets are padded with

The material the pockets are padded with also impacts the game’s results. Newer wheels have their pockets’ bottom padded with sturdy plastic material, which leads to greater ball bounce. In older wheels, the pockets were padded with soft material glued with cement.

When pads wear out, they need to be replaced but this process involves a great level of precision and diligence. Sometimes the material the new pads are made of is not completely identical to the one that was originally used. This causes pockets of trapped air to appear during the replacement process, which, in turn, impacts the pads’ resilience.

Pocket pads that are not equally resilient disturb the random characteristics of the wheel. Softer materials are less resilient absorbing more energy from the ball. The ball is retained by such pockets more frequently. Sturdier materials are far more resilient causing the ball to bounce out of the pockets.

Worn out pockets

Worn out pockets with minute scratches on their surface can create sector bias. Even the tiniest of scratches can cause irregularities in friction or impact absorption.

Computer Prediction

Ironically, the first portable computer was created in the early 1960s specifically for the purpose of beating roulette. It is the brainchild of Edward O. Thorp, otherwise known as the “Father of Card Counting”, and Claude Shannon, who laid the foundations of the Information Theory.

The device they came up with was small enough for a person to hide it under their jacket. The roulette computer calculated which sector the ball was most likely to settle in by timing the wheel and the ball.

What’s interesting is that this system performed more efficiently on wheels without bias. The trouble was that casinos could easily hinder the person who used the computer by closing the table for wagering before the ball is released onto the wheel.

Later on in the 1970s, a group of students from the University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) decided to take a break from their academic pursuits and devise a small concealable computer that would allow them to overcome the house edge in roulette. The device was small enough to be concealed in a shoe.

The player would input data into the computer by tapping a tiny switch with their big toe. Using the input data, the computer would predict in which of the 8 wheel octants the ball would land in. This machine would also tell the player when not to make a wager.

Two people were needed for this device to work efficiently. One person would simply observe the game and input data by tapping the switch of the device in their shoe. The other person received the signals through an output system attached to their chest and hidden under their shirt.

This piece of technology proved efficient at the roulette tables, earning the group of students around $10,000. Despite this success, the Eudaemons, as they called themselves, split up after an accident where one of the bettors was badly burned by the device because of insulation failure.

Today, there are modern versions of these devices, some of which are small enough to be hidden into a pen or even pasted onto one’s tooth. The player clicks the device when the ball passes through specific sections or numbers of the wheel track to measure the wheel’s speed and deceleration.

The data is transmitted into a small computer so that it can run its calculations and determine the next winning number. This information reaches the player either through an earpiece or through vibrations.

Keep in mind that the use of electronic devices for result prediction is strictly prohibited in many jurisdictions. If caught, players risk a lawsuit or are permanently banned from the casino’s premises. It all depends on which jurisdiction you are caught using the device in.

The UK Gambling Commission, for example, has granted casino operators the right to deny payment to such players. The use of electronic devices as a means of outcome prediction is considered cheating and is thus unlawful in Nevada.

Identifying the Dealer's Signature

Another form of advantage play in roulette has to do with a phenomenon called “the dealer’s signature”. With this approach, the player identifies patterns in the dealer’s ball-release technique.

Let’s first clarify that it is impossible for any dealer out there to release the ball in such a way so that it repeatedly settles on the same individual number. When looking to exploit dealer patterns, the player determines whether or not the ball is repeatedly released in a manner that allows it to land on numbers within a specific wheel section.

This process is also known as “sector slicing”. It enables the player to gain an advantage over the house by betting on the numbers in the respective section. This is easier said than done with accuracy. Most dealers fall into a routine unconsciously because of muscle memory.

At a start of a new round, the dealer would pick the ball from the pocket it last settled in, take it back to the top of the wheel, and release it again. A dealer with a signature would spin the ball in such a way so that it often lands several pockets away from the number that last showed.

Even when done subconsciously, this leads to controlled instead of random results. Players who resort to this technique do not pay attention to the exact numbers that hit. Instead, they try to establish the distance (in terms of pockets) between the current winning number and the number that occurred on the last spin.

This approach lacks no logic, but there is no guarantee it will be effective when put to practice. For example, if the ball hits one of the deflectors on the wheel, it will bounce off and the outcome will again be random even if the dealer has a signature.

Visual Tracking

Unlike computer-based methods, visual tracking is a completely legal approach toward roulette outcome prediction. This method requires a decent amount of patience, practice, and visual acuity to work. It involves meticulous observation of the trajectory of the ball in relation to the counter rotation of the wheelhead to predict in which section the ball is most likely to land.

This approach yields decent results when the right playing conditions are present. For one, it is said to work on old-model wheels. The ball should be spun fast by the dealer who needs to maintain a stable rotation of the wheelhead at medium speed. A recurring ball drop is also required as well as a heavier, less bouncy ball, inclined to stay several pockets away from where it originally fell onto the wheel head.

The method requires a very good view of the wheelhead and the ball, which is why it works best when two people utilize it as a team. One person tracks the ball’s trajectory and gives signals to their collaborator who places the actual wagers.

The best position for a visual tracker is right next to the wheel where the plexiglass shield is, immediately next to the last table seat. This way the bettor can get a clear view of the tracker’s signals and act accordingly.

The bettor, on the other hand, should sit toward the back of the table, immediately next to the dealer. This allows them to effortlessly see the tracker’s signals and gives them easy access to the betting layout.

The trouble is many casinos no longer use old-model roulette wheels, opting for a newer, sturdier design with shallower pocket separators. Visual tracking is less likely to work in such playing conditions.